Poly silicon prices going down

From Solarplaza.com - Rotterdam Netherland

Interesting developments are taking place in the crystalline solar PV sector as well. High demand for, and shortages of, poly silicon over the last two years have attracted new poly manufacturers, and led to expansion plans among existing players. The rapid growth in poly silicon production capacity (partly in China) is now resulting in actual output, on top of which the semiconductor industry is seeing revenues decline due to the economic slowdown. As a result, poly silicon prices have fallen by 50% on the spot market over the past four weeks, and some insiders see prices dropping to less than $ 100/kg soon. That will mean a 75% reduction in perhaps just a few months. Of course, this will spell good news for the price of crystalline solar modules, which have already dropped to € 2.50/Wp or less for tier one manufacturers, with delivery in 2009. And with poly silicon at $ 100/kg, a further drop is possible, if not probable. There are even Chinese tier two manufacturers that expect, and are even offering, prices of € 2 - € 2.20/Wp for the second half of 2009. This is, of course, good news for the market. These lower prices will bring return on investment for ground-mounted projects in Germany to around 7-8%. In Italy, these module prices will result in much higher ROIs. Thus, crystalline PV modules will be an attractive, reliable and proven proposition for ground-mounted PV systems. This scenario could result in strong growth in the German PV market, which has no cap, and will therefore remain the biggest, most stable and most attractive PV market in the world.